You can’t bet on the Mr. Olympia. You can bet on all major sports. You can bet on political outcomes. Some places you can bet on award shows, like the Oscars. You can even bet on some aspects of professional wrestling, which (spoiler alert) is scripted, and beauty pageants. But you can’t legally bet on bodybuilding? Why not? The Olympia is held in the world’s gambling capital of Las Vegas. What would the Olympia odds be if you could put money on your pick for the winner? Let’s explore.
WHY CAN’T YOU BET ON THE OLYMPIA?
There are a few probable reason why the ultimate pro bodybuilding contest is a bad candidate for legal gambling.
1. Too Subjective
Bodybuilding relies solely on subjective judging. Unlike most other sports that are also judged, like an MMA fight, there is no chance for an unpredictable, unjudged finish (such as a knockout or submission hold). That brings us to reason #2.
2. Possible Corruption
If big betting money depended solely on the discretion of (barely paid) judges, the temptation for judges betting on contests and/or pre-determining and leaking results would be great. Betting amounts might need to be severely limited to, say, $50. The IFBB Pro League does not have a position on gambling, but perhaps it would be against it if a major gambling site put up Olympia odds and accepted bets.
3. Prohibitive Favorites
Who would you have bet on in 1987 when Lee Haney went for his fourth of eight straight Olympia titles or 2004 when Ronnie Coleman went for his seventh of eighth straight? You’d have to get some ridiculously huge odds to tempt you away from the dominant competitor and instead bet on perennial runner-ups Rich Gaspari and Jay Cutler? Even when bodybuilding doesn’t have a dominator in the midst of a dynasty (like now), there are likely only two or maybe three competitors who come in with a legit shot of winning.
Certainly, you could have parlays like pick the top six in order or the top 10 in order or the members of the first and second prejudging callouts, but when it comes to the winner, even a casual bodybuilding fan knows that long-shots have no shot. Back to subjectivity: Judges have the same preconceived notions as fans. That’s why “out of nowhere” stunners like Gunter Schlierkamp in 2002 or Dennis Wolf in 2007 are placed too low in the first round but near the top in the last round, and the early score when they were overlooked ultimately keeps them from contending for the title. (No longer overlooked, Schlierkamp beat Ronnie Coleman in a contest two weeks after the 2002 Mr. Olympia.)
4. Unpopularity
As much as we may love bodybuilding and despite the hundreds of millions of people worldwide who train with weights for better physiques, as a spectator sport pro bodybuilding is niche. A small niche. Mr. Olympia results aren’t covered by ESPN or CNN. If and when it’s deemed popular enough to make it worth their while, bookmakers at gambling sites will put up odds, allow bets, and those sites take will their cut of the action (about 4.7%). Gambling sites are all about making money, of course. Show them that there are a lot of potential bodybuilding bettors out there, and they’ll figure out a way to make it work.
2024 MR. OLYMPIA BETTING ODDS
If there was betting on this year’s Mr. Olympia, the odds would look something like this. Note: This has been updated to remove Nick Walker, whom we initially had at 12 to 1, after he dropped out of the 2024 Olympia six days out.
2.1 to 1 Hadi Choopan
2.1 to 1 Derek Lunsford
Choopan, the 2022 Mr. Olympia, and Lunsford, the 2023 Mr. Olympia, are the prohibitive favorites. Having placed one-two the last two years (Choopan over Lunsford by four points in ’22, Lunsford over Choopan by five points in ’23) that is the most likely outcome this year, as well. But in what order? Both received first place votes both of the previous two years. Both have similar dense, wide, short physiques. This is truly a toss-up with the oddsmakers giving you just enough to make a tiny profit by betting on both, as long as someone else doesn’t win.
5 to 1 Samson Dauda
The only other competitor with decent odds of winning is Dauda, who was third in last year’s Olympia (receiving some second place votes) and second behind Choopan in this year’s Arnold Classic. His advantage is that his physique is very different from the similar Choopan and Lunsford. He’s taller and more aesthetically built. If the judges wanted to go that route, he could become the 19th Mr. Olympia and make this a very profitable bet.
10 to 1 Brandon Curry
Curry is the only other Mr. Olympia in this contest, having won the title in 2019. That keeps him at a respectable 10-to-1. In the four contests since his win, he was runner-up twice and then fourth the last two years.
15 to 1 Raphael Brandao
After sitting out last year’s Olympia and finishing third at this year’s Arnold Classic, Brandao, like Dauda, is another aesthetic guy who has filled out and could potentially surprise. If you wanted to drop a few dollars on a true long shot with the potential to stun the bodybuilding world, this would be the bet to make. That said, as Schlierkamp and Wolf show, there’s a big difference between a shockingly good showing and actually coming out of “nowhere” to win the Super Bowl of bodybuilding.
18 to 1 Andrew Jacked
20 to 1 Hunter Labrada
40 to 1 William Bonac
Jacked was fifth last year; Labrada was sixth. Bonac was ninth in his most recent Olympia (2022). These three guys are very good bets for the top 10 (all could make the top six), but very bad bets for the win. Over the 60 year history of the Mr. Olympia, there have four giant leaps to the win: Ronnie Coleman went from ninth in 1997 to first in 1998, Shawn Rhoden went from fifth in 2017 to first in 2018, Brandon Curry did the same from 2018 to 2019, and Big Ramy went from sixth in 2018 to first in 2020 after not competing in 2019. It’s certainly happening more frequently in recent years. However, there was no returning champ when Coleman and Curry won, Rhoden dethroned a fading Phil Heath, and Ramy dethroned Curry, who was never considered a strong champ.
None of those circumstances apply to this year. Could it happen? Yes. Will it? Betting on a giant leap is a sucker bet. But how about first and second callout bets? Those could be fun, and all three of these men could make the second callout and potentially a first callout (if it has more than three competitors).
100 to 1 EVERYONE ELSE: Tonio Burton, Jonathan De La Rosa, Mohamed Foda, Martin Fitzwater, John Jewett, Theo Leguerrier, Bruno Santos, Behrooz Tabani, Akim Williams
Winning? Nope. Top three? Nope. Top 10? Since we only listed eight bodybuilders previously, at least two of these final guys will make it (Burton was there last year), and perhaps one or two more. A top 10 bet could be fun…if we can ever officially gamble on the Mr. Olympia.
